With six months to go until Brexit, a panel of experts looked at what the future holds for the Welsh economy as it opened the first session of this year’s Cardiff Book Festival at the capital’s Jurys Inn last Friday morning (7 September).
Sponsored by Quantum Advisory, the local independent financial services consultancy firm, the debate covered a range of topics, including current economic conditions, the impact of Brexit and digitalisation, and ways to create wealth and tackle inequality issues in this volatile context.
A panel chaired by the BBC Business correspondent Brian Meechan that included Cardiff Airport chief executive, Debra Barber; Federation of Small Businesses Wales head of external affairs, Ben Cottam; Chwarae Teg chief executive, Cerys Furlong; and Capital Law senior partner and Welsh government business advisor, Chris Notthow, discussed progress made in 2018 and expectations for the year to come.
Through their interventions, the speakers portrayed a globally more confident and optimistic business community than a year ago. They agreed that Brexit, despite its inherent threats, provides an opportunity to rethink our approach to doing business as part of a deeper cultural change, but there were mixed views on how to best implement this change.
Looking back on 2018, the panel acknowledged that although the lack of clarity remains an obstacle, progress has been made and businesses are getting ready as best they can.
For Debra Barber, it’s been a strong year for the airport with major improvements in infrastructure being completed. The investment is expected to generate significant economic benefits, not just for local associated businesses but also for Wales as a whole, with more people looking at exporting “beyond Europe”.
Debra Barber said: “At the moment, our biggest issue is the currency insecurity and the impact it has on fuel prices. Contingency plans are put in place, risks are being evaluated, but generally, there is a sense of business as usual.”
Cerys Furlong agreed that the situation is improving as we approach March. She also welcomed the fact that 2018 was the year of media movements supporting women, with the #PayMeToo campaign and the Gender Pay Gap Reporting exposing salary imbalances. Nevertheless, she pointed out that a lot of question marks remain post-Brexit, as “lost EU funding will mean that we will need to find new ways of addressing inequalities and disparities.”
Chris Notthow observed a similar sense of resilience in the commercial law sector as Debra Barber did in the aviation sector – “it’s happening, and businesses are fighting their way through it.” Yet, he regretted that the business community does not interact more with Welsh Government and argued that “high level” plans would benefit from mutual consultation and input. He gave the Metro as an example of “a significant project, but full implications of which are still widely unknown by many.”
This joins Ben Cottam’s belief that to review the foundations of our economy ahead of Brexit, we need to launch conversations with Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). He said: “In 2018, the Welsh Government started to focus more on local growth and support indigenous companies, but more should be done to accompany SMEs as the smaller the business, the bigger the uncertainty.”
With most of the Welsh economy relying on SMEs which currently benefit from EU grants, Debra Barber added that it is the whole way we go about business that needs to change: “It’s our thought process that needs to change, because when the funding stops, business plans will need to work from day one – there won’t be the same safety net.”
Looking ahead, all participants agreed that the disruptive impact of leaving the EU provides an opportunity for Wales to be more collaborative and creative in its approach to boosting growth and tackling inequalities. As Chris Notthow put it, “businesses are not afraid of change, but the shock needs to happen at a governmental level.”
With the rise of the “Women on Board” movement, Cerys Furlong hopes that 2019 will be a turning point for gender equality, “not just because it’s the right thing to do but because it’s right for the economy.” When she referred to positive discrimination as a necessary evil though, Debra Barber defended meritocracy first. Both agreed that although one should not degrade the operation of a business for the sake of gender equality, quotas are helping to take down barriers and set up the system so that it rewards the right person for the right job.
As the discussion went on, it became clear that the debate is representative of a wider inclusivity problem that concerns not only women, but also minority groups and certain social classes.
For Chris Notthow, gender inequality is “purely unacceptable”. Other inequalities are more complex and longer term, and “solving them will require a very deep cultural change and a lot of confidence-building – making application forms more inclusive is not enough.”
Finally, the panel reflected on the opportunities provided by AI and digitalisation. It’s already part of Cardiff Airport’s master plan to become more “smart”, but again, more SMEs could take part in the debate. As Ben Cottam summed it up, “it’s like Brexit: a lot of uncertainties remain, but it’s about being resilient and prepared for whatever might come.”